Gold

As the ten-year yield has edged higher over recent weeks the sheen has come off gold. The air has started to hiss in one of the best performing asset classes year-to-date. Selling pressure picked up post Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, as the curve broke higher. What ultimately drives the price of gold remains a steamy topic round the camp fire, a taut interplay between real rates, the US dollar, commodities and risk; but not much has changed since many brokers were out a month or so back, talking up the early stages of a long-term bull market. Bank of America was hot on the ultimate store of value line as economies contract and Central Banks put the machinists of the printing presses on double shifts. Financial repression is the game in town, gold is the way to play. “The Fed can’t print gold”. Indeed it can’t. Hence a suggestion that the gold price is heading to $3000. Others think it’ll go higher. A lot higher. Goehring & Rozencwajg, the specialist natural resource house has been talking up gold. “Even adjusting the Fed’s balance sheet for excess reserves, we believe today’s balance sheet justifies a gold price in excess of $15,000 per ounce on the low side or $25,000 per ounce on the high end.” Go figure. Everyone has their own reason for buying gold, including Warren Buffet, a vocal critic of such an unproductive asset, whose Berkshire Hathaway recently revealed a new $564m stake in Barrick Gold. At a time when monetary policy is in unchartered territory, you may want some gold for a new necklace, or for fear of an impending bonfire of fiat currencies. And everything in between. Many factors influence the behaviour of investors, but fear is one of the strongest.