Volatility

As investors prickle and itch and try to weigh up whether the ongoing avalanche of data, anecdotal reports and corporate murmurings portent nothing more than shrug-of-the-shoulders passing of inflationary mist – and the Federal Reserve do indeed have it all under control – it is no surprise to see the tape turn red. The froth… Read More Volatility

Payrolls

Given how dark it got in the dark days of the pandemic when everything all but stopped, it should not be a huge surprise that mutterings of ‘inflation’ on Q1 conference calls a year on, are more of a cacophony of Hairy Maclary and Scarface Claw stuck-up-a-tree type proportions. Use of the word is up… Read More Payrolls

Chips

As economies open up and middle-class consumers, flush with pandemic savings and crypto gains, look for things to buy, it should be a big fat summer for the auto industry. The forecourts should be buzzing. Instead they may soon become increasingly bare. Indeed, Volkswagen is the latest OEM to email their top managers with the… Read More Chips

Employment

There are no bones about it, the US economy is all fizz, bang and pop. The CEO of Goldman Sachs has said as much: “I’d state quite clearly, and I said in the prepared remarks, that we think that we’re going to have very, very robust economic growth in the second half of 2021 into… Read More Employment

Costs

Whilst ‘The Interview’ may have averted attention for a day or two, the market remains fully vexed on the inflation narrative: how high are yields going, and how quickly can portfolios rotate. It has been the fourth worst start for 30yr Treasuries in the past 100 years. And there are good reasons to vex: employment… Read More Costs

Fantasy

Much has been made of the ice-cool testimony of Fed Chief Jerome Powell last week. A nonchalant noting of the current itch in the bond market but a general disinterest in doing any scratching. Yields, post a bumper jobs report, resumed their grind higher. Investors, meanwhile, hold their breath. Don’t fight the Fed says the… Read More Fantasy

Lo-vol

What has long been a murmur has recently turned into a volley of cat calls. As yields turn tail on expectations of rising inflation and a lurch to tighter policy, so the peachy multiples of fashionable revved up growth stocks have come into the crosshairs. Specifically those that are, perhaps, little fast on the pitch,… Read More Lo-vol

Valuation

Sometimes it’s hard to keep up. For weeks and weeks, everything was locked down, it was easy to know what was going on: baking, Netflix and yoga. Now, it’s all change, hence revved up economists talking about the intoxicating cocktail of monetary and fiscal stimulus and the unlikely post-recession starting point of surging consumer net… Read More Valuation

Cans

“There is a bubble” he tutted; valuations are “crazy”, assets “too scarce”. It could be any analyst or investor talking about everything from cryptocurrency, to software companies, to loss making IPOs; but it was in fact the CEO of oil super major Total, Patrick Pouyanne, talking to a wide-eyed FT analyst about the frenzied buying… Read More Cans

Conferences

A photo popped up on Twitter last week of Cancun airport. Now maybe Subway had a special two-for-one deal that caught the mood, but the sight of a crammed concourse is likely to send a shiver down the spine of bond holders sitting on yields of next to nothing. The much vaunted ‘pent up demand’… Read More Conferences