Q1 kicked off, the vista changed
Gone the feelings, locked down, so strange;
Economies thawed, restrictions, rules
No more baking and no home school….
Rotation afoot, as yields lurched higher
Energy sang like a male voice choir;
By far the worst of the year just gone
Was about to run, and run and run.
Growth stocks, the best friend of many
Started to list, two-a-penny;
Duration tightened, fiscal fizzed
Leaving many ablaze, many a-tizz.
With the upbeat mood and froth and foam,
Eyes turned to the Fed, their strut their tone;
Inflation stirred, a prickle of sweat
Yet velocity amiss, the bond market bet.
Q2 in turn more heat, more chatter
Company filings all a natter;
Egged on in yards by labour markets
Blowing apart consensus targets..
Transitory the banner, belied the facts
Shortages abound, the narrative cracked;
Headlines lit up, supply chains taut
Tankers tied up, not where they ought.
By the half year mark, a different look,
Yield eased lower, the Fed slipped off the hook;
Expectations eased, inflation and stuff
Fears misplaced, all talk, all fluff.
As the mood changed tack
Hunger for ‘growth’ came roaring back;
Retail money all hot and steamy
Loaded up on options, so crypto-dreamy…
Numbers astound, the market narrow
Cash shipped in, barrow by barrow;
The favoured few, bought hand over fist,
Concentration risk, fears amiss.
By Q4 once more, sentiment shifted
Transitory toasted, stagflation fears lifted;
The consumer rattled by Thanksgiving birds
Up in price, by more than a third.
Confidence sank, hawks appeared
Jobs a plenty, wage hikes reared;
Inflation was real, house prices on fire
Inequality the focus of left leaning ire.
With collars itchy, and sweaty cheeks
The Fed wide eyed as the data streaked;
A turn, a pivot, the inflation we got,
Was not expected, no it was not.
The calls then to make, the calls then to come
May need a vat of seasonal rum;
But first kick back, switch off, relax,
Good health and happiness matter just as much.