There are plenty of reasons to think that the market could yet melt up. Leading indicators seem to be OK, the all-important ISM Manufacturing Index confirms the broadly upbeat tone and sell-side cheerleaders talk up their surveys of truckers and other economically sensitive power-plays. And lest we forget, despite all the cooing on intentions to… Read More Windows

It is said that Richard W. Fisher, the former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, had a sort of sixth sense for inflation. Unlike many peers, he was a bit leery on the reams and reams of data that is forever pored over, distilled and shaped into a dominant narrative. Instead, Fisher liked… Read More Talking

Of all the parabolic price charts that are lighting up Bloomberg terminals, the one to really give global policy makers the heebie-jeebies is, perhaps, the price of fertiliser. Up and up it goes, squeezing the already thin margins of put-upon famers. Populations can lean into higher fuel costs with a parka jacket and a bicycle,… Read More Food

The grill is starting to spit. With inflation expectations breaking out, gone are confident murmurings that the price hikes being seen across the global supply chain are transitory. They are now getting worse. And likely to continue for a bit longer than previously expected. Gulp. That the Fed Chair himself is up for re-appointment only… Read More Uniforms

There was good news this Labour Day. The price of frankfurters was down 1.4% from last year’s Labour Day, perhaps marking an allocation away from beef patties, where prices rose, albeit in more muted fashion to last year’s double-digit sizzle, sizzle, pop. Spices, seasonings, condiments and sauces though, were all up. So too, it seems,… Read More Forecasting

Supply chains are a mess. A real mess. Go on to the strangely absorbing website www.marinetraffic.com and it all becomes very visual. Panama, Suez, Mallaca, Hormuz, all the big name areas of shipping glow up, and whilst this may not be that unusual, shipping analysts tell an expensive tale of empty ships, bottlenecks, not enough… Read More Messy

It is often instructive to see what corporates do with their cash. Some buy more machines or their own shares or a new tech stack. Some go wallet out to an auction of NFTs and drop $150,000 on a CryptoPunk with clown green eyes. Quite what shareholders muttered to themselves on reading VISA’s decision to… Read More Punting

As summer sets and Labour Day looms there is an air of boom time to markets that rip out record highs day after day. Powell played the ball with soft hands at the Jackson Hole highbrow pow-wow and investors collectively exhaled. All is good with the data which, in the main, is behaving as is… Read More Canary

It is a good time to be an M&A banker. Neptune kitchens and oversized hot tubs beckon, come bonus time. In the first half of 2021 global big-ticket M&A clocked up $2.8 trillion in deal activity. $2.8 trillion. This is the fizziest first half on record for both value and volume. Indeed, a wide-eyed Matt… Read More Deals

In late 2019 Philip Morris was added to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) North America which recognised, in the eyes of the tobacco giant’s suited PR, the company’s “exemplary sustainability performance” and “best in class” performance against the DJSI’s apparent wobbly ESG metrics. It’s a development that jars with the view of the World… Read More Scoring