Costs

Whilst ‘The Interview’ may have averted attention for a day or two, the market remains fully vexed on the inflation narrative: how high are yields going, and how quickly can portfolios rotate. It has been the fourth worst start for 30yr Treasuries in the past 100 years. And there are good reasons to vex: employment… Read More Costs

Fantasy

Much has been made of the ice-cool testimony of Fed Chief Jerome Powell last week. A nonchalant noting of the current itch in the bond market but a general disinterest in doing any scratching. Yields, post a bumper jobs report, resumed their grind higher. Investors, meanwhile, hold their breath. Don’t fight the Fed says the… Read More Fantasy

Lo-vol

What has long been a murmur has recently turned into a volley of cat calls. As yields turn tail on expectations of rising inflation and a lurch to tighter policy, so the peachy multiples of fashionable revved up growth stocks have come into the crosshairs. Specifically those that are, perhaps, little fast on the pitch,… Read More Lo-vol

Valuation

Sometimes it’s hard to keep up. For weeks and weeks, everything was locked down, it was easy to know what was going on: baking, Netflix and yoga. Now, it’s all change, hence revved up economists talking about the intoxicating cocktail of monetary and fiscal stimulus and the unlikely post-recession starting point of surging consumer net… Read More Valuation

Cans

“There is a bubble” he tutted; valuations are “crazy”, assets “too scarce”. It could be any analyst or investor talking about everything from cryptocurrency, to software companies, to loss making IPOs; but it was in fact the CEO of oil super major Total, Patrick Pouyanne, talking to a wide-eyed FT analyst about the frenzied buying… Read More Cans

Conferences

A photo popped up on Twitter last week of Cancun airport. Now maybe Subway had a special two-for-one deal that caught the mood, but the sight of a crammed concourse is likely to send a shiver down the spine of bond holders sitting on yields of next to nothing. The much vaunted ‘pent up demand’… Read More Conferences

Inflation

Big name economists continue to scramble to upgrade their GDP forecasts citing soon-to-be-arriving job gains, ‘monster’ savings, pent-up demand and – coming to a state near you – another package of massive fiscal stimulus complete with a Biden bow. Albeit, perhaps, it being less about stimulus and more about getting everyone through the endless winter… Read More Inflation

Gaming

The reaction to the results of Electronic Arts, the second largest gaming company in America, were somewhat perplexing for those who read the full release. The results were good, with some significant developments, and yet, the shares fell; a function, perhaps, of near-term expectations getting a little too hot under the collar. Bar the souped-up… Read More Gaming

Earnings

It’s amazing how quickly the narrative changes. The sell-off last week was accompanied by cat calls in the media as the sharp suits of Wall Street got their pips squeezed. Cue many articles about the rising influence of stay-at-home day traders throwing down chips into a casino-like market. It all got a little Wild West.… Read More Earnings

Neglected growth

Whilst emojis appear to be the new pitchforks, the mob is after the shorts, feeding a frenzy in stock activity that has made front page headlines the world over. GameStop, once a forlorn bricks-and-mortar video game retailer, is now the talk of the town, and breaking the P&Ls of hedge funds who levered up the… Read More Neglected growth